Odds & risks
The honest math, worked out in public.
These numbers update from the live fleet data and today's BTC price. They're here so nobody buys $P71 thinking a payout is likely or soon.
- Prize value today
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- Cost to search every key
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- Expected cost to find it
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- Chance it's found so far
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What those numbers mean
In other words, on compute cost alone the search is expected to cost more than the prize is worth. The project only makes sense as a long-shot pooled lottery, funded by trading activity, where the chance of finding the key grows with every dollar of fees. Prices for GPU time fall over time and faster software appears, which helps, but not by enough to change the basic picture soon.
The risks
Someone else finds it first
Public pools and private groups are searching the same range. If they find the key before us, the BTC is gone and there is nothing to distribute.
The key is never found
If trading volume dries up, fees stop and the search stalls. The keys already checked stay checked, but progress may stop for good.
The token can go to zero
The token's market price has nothing backing it except interest in the search. It can lose most or all of its value whether or not the puzzle is solved.
The sweep can be stolen
Claiming the prize reveals its public key, and a 70-bit key can then be recovered by bots in minutes. We plan to submit the sweep privately to a mining pool, which lowers this risk but can't remove it entirely.
You are trusting the operator
The person who finds the key controls the BTC until it is distributed. The public log, wallets and snapshot rules are there to make that accountable, but they are promises, not code that enforces itself.
Rules and regulation
Tokens that promise holders a share of an outcome may be treated as securities in some countries, and the payout may be taxable where you live. Check your local rules before participating.